Simulating Rural Environmentally and Socio-Economically Constrained Multi-Activity and Multi-Decision Societies in a Low-Data Context: A Challenge Through Empirical Agent-Based Modeling

Development issues in developing countries belong to complex situations where society and environment are intricate. However, such sites lack the necessary amount of reliable, checkable data and information, while these very constraining factors determine the populations' evolutions, such as villagers living in Sahelian environments. Beyond a game-theory model that leads to a premature selection of the relevant variables, we build an individual-centered, empirical, KIDS-oriented (Keep It Descriptive & Simple), and multidisciplinary agent-based model focusing on the villagers\' differential accesses to economic and production activities according to social rules and norms, mainly driven by social criteria from which gender and rank within the family are the most important, as they were observed and registered during individual interviews. The purpose of the work is to build a valid and robust model that overcome this lack of data by building a individual specific system of behaviour rules conditioning these differential accesses showing the long-term catalytic effects of small changes of social rules. The model-building methodology is thereby crucial: the interviewing process provided the behaviour rules and criteria while the context, i.e. the economic, demographic and agro-ecological environment is described following published or unpublished literature. Thanks to a sensitivity analysis on several selected parameters, the model appears fairly robust and sensitive enough. The confidence building simulation outputs reasonably reproduces the dynamics of local situations and is consistent with three authors having investigated in our site. Thanks to its empirical approach and its balanced conception between sociology and agro-ecology at the relevant scale, i.e. the individual tied to social relations, limitations and obligations and connected with his/her biophysical and economic environment, the model can be considered as an efficient "trend provider" but not an absolute "figure provider" for simulating rural societies of the Nigrien Sahel and testing scenarios on the same context. Such ABMs can be a useful interface to analyze social stakes in development projects.Rule-Based Modelling, Rural Sahel, Confidence Building, Low-Data Context, Social Criteria

The Anopheles dirus complex: spatial distribution and environmental drivers

BACKGROUND: The Anopheles dirus complex includes efficient malaria vectors of the Asian forested zone. Studies suggest ecological and biological differences between the species of the complex but variations within species suggest possible environmental influences. Behavioural variation might determine vector capacity and adaptation to changing environment. It is thus necessary to clarify the species distributions and the influences of environment on behavioural heterogeneity. METHODS: A literature review highlights variation between species, influences of environmental drivers, and consequences on vector status and control. The localisation of collection sites from the literature and from a recent project (MALVECASIA) produces detailed species distributions maps. These facilitate species identification and analysis of environmental influences. RESULTS: The maps give a good overview of species distributions. If species status partly explains behavioural heterogeneity, occurrence and vectorial status, some environmental drivers have at least the same importance. Those include rainfall, temperature, humidity, shade, soil type, water chemistry and moon phase. Most factors are probably constantly favourable in forest. Biological specificities, behaviour and high human-vector contact in the forest can explain the association of this complex with high malaria prevalence, multi-drug resistant Plasmodium falciparum and partial control failure of forest malaria in Southeast Asia. CONCLUSION: Environmental and human factors seem better than species specificities at explaining behavioural heterogeneity. Although forest seems essential for mosquito survival, adaptations to orchards and wells have been recorded. Understanding the relationship between landscape components and mosquito population is a priority in foreseeing the influence of land-cover changes on malaria occurrence and in shaping control strategies for the future

Targeting rural development interventions : empirical agent-based modeling in Nigerien villages

International audienceThe aim of this article is to analyze the impact of development interventions on the population of three Nigerien villages that differ in terms of their agro-ecological, social and economic characteristics. This is performed by simulating the behavior of individuals in an agent-based modeling framework which integrates the village characteristics as well as the family internal rules that condition access to economic and production activities. Villagers are differentiated according to the social and agro-ecological constraints they are subjected to. Two development project interventions are simulated, assuming no land scarcity: increasing the availability of inorganic fertilizers for farmers and an inventory credit technique based on millet grain. Two distinct approaches were used to model the rationale of farmers' decision making: gains or losses in economic value or gains or losses in within-village ''reputation''. Our results show that village populations do not respond en masse to development interventions. Reputation has little effect on the population behavior and should be considered more as a local proxy for wealth amongst villagers, suggesting the monetization of these societies. Populations involve themselves in the two simulated development interventions only at sites where savings are possible. Some level of household food security and investment capacity is actually required to take part in the development interventions, which are largely conditioned by family manpower and size. As long as uncultivated land remains available in the village territory, support for inorganic fertilizers has little impact in the absence of any intensification process. Inventory credit engages a maximum of 25% of the population at the site with medium agro-ecological conditions. Therefore, both interventions should be viewed as a potential support tool for a limited part of the population capable of going beyond the survival level, but not as a generic poverty-alleviation panacea

Testing Social-driven Forces on the Evolution of Sahelian Rural Systems: A Combined Agent-based Modeling and Anthropological Approach

International audienceThis article presents the results of a methodology combining an extensive fieldwork, a formalization of field-based individual rules and norms into an agent-based model and the implementation of scenarios analyzing the effects of social and agro-ecological constraints on rural farmers through the study of three different sites in Nigerien Sahel. Two family transition processes are here tested, following field observations and literature-based hypotheses: family organizations can evolve between a patriarchal mode and a non-cooperative one because of family income redistribution tensions. Family inheritance systems can shift between a "customary" mode and a "local Muslim" one through family land availability tensions. Our results show that both agro-ecological and socio-economic characteristics determine the simulated family type distribution and consequently the allocation of resources. Results from simulations with no evolution processes show that villages specialize themselves on different economic activities according to natural resources: An intensification gradient is observed from the most favored site, with more local productions and improved ecological indicators, to the less-favored one, with a growing proportion of the population wealth coming from migration remittances and "off-shore" livestock. Once introducing such processes, the differentiation also occurs within the population level, subdividing it into specializing groups according to their size, their assets and their social status. Emerging individualistic family types increase the village populations' robustness through different and site-specific evolutions

Reconstituting family transitions of Sahelian western Niger 1950-2000 : an agent-based modelling approach in a low data context

International audienceThis research analyses the impacts of the family organization on the diversity of income sources and the sustainability and the dynamics of rainfed farming systems of Sahelian Niger, through an individual-centred agent-based model which variables were defined through anthropological investigation. Results show that family organisation has strong effects on wealth levels and distribution and on demographic growth. They also suggest a historic shift from the patriarchal mode to a mono-nuclear mode in the 70's in this specific area, due to a higher resilience of the latter thanks to a broader diversification and a better adequacy between wealth and family demograph

The PBRM (perception-based regional mapping): A spatial method to support regional development initiatives

International audienceThis paper examines the relevance of a perception-based regional level mapping tool in rural Niger. Two regions in Niger are examined. Results permit to assume that such a tool helped to fill several gaps: (i) a scale gap between local and nation wide studies; (ii) a scientific gap between biophysical and socio-anthropological sciences; and (iii) a methodological gap of integration between data sources. Moreover, this method is fast, cheap and action-oriented. Data are easily understandable and usable both by rural communities and development agencies. It provides information about human dynamics at a regional level, which cannot be achieved by other method

Cropland Mapping over Sahelian and Sudanian Agrosystems: A Knowledge-Based Approach Using PROBA-V Time Series at 100-m

Early warning systems for food security require accurate and up-to-date information on the location of major crops in order to prevent hazards. A recent systematic analysis of existing cropland maps identified priority areas for cropland mapping and highlighted a major need for the Sahelian and Sudanian agrosystems. This paper proposes a knowledge-based approach to map cropland in the Sahelian and Sudanian agrosystems that benefits from the 100-m spatial resolution of the recent PROBA-V sensor. The methodology uses five temporal features characterizing crop development throughout the vegetative season to optimize cropland discrimination. A feature importance analysis validates the efficiency of using a diversity of temporal features. The fully-automated method offers the first cropland map at 100-m using the PROBA-V sensor with an overall accuracy of 84% and an F-score for the cropland class of 74%. The improvements observed compared to existing cropland products are related to the hectometric resolution, to the methodology and to the quality of the labeling layer from which reliable training samples were automatically extracted. Classification errors are mainly explained by data availability and landscape fragmentation. Further improvements are expected with the upcoming enhanced cloud screening of the PROBA-V sensor